Skip to content
Back to Research
Framework 05 · Trade Management

Trade Management

Now what?

Frameworks 01 through 04 all answer one question in different ways: should I enter?

This one answers what happens after commitment.

Once capital is in a trade, the trade will ask to be changed. Move the stop. Add more. Take something off. Get out.

The market earns every adjustment.

Exhibit 01 · The Trade Lifecycle
COMMITCapital moves.Risk becomes real.
MANAGETwo modes.
▼ PROTECTReduce risk when conditions turn
▲ COMPOUNDAdd capital when proven correct
EXITThesis ends.
Default state: unchanged

Three phases. Inside management, two modes — one defensive, one offensive.

Absent evidence, neither fires.

1Market Environment2Opportunity Universe3Setup Grading4Sizing5Trade Management

Where Evidence Comes From

Every adjustment requires evidence. That evidence arrives from two directions.

The first is the trade itself — what this position has already done, and whether it has advanced far enough to justify carrying less risk or committing more capital. The second is the environment. Framework 01 classifies conditions as aggressive, neutral, or defensive, and those conditions change how much room a trade should be given. Neither source is me. Both are the market.

Evidence comes from the position or from the environment. Never from how I feel about either.

Commit

Framework 03 decided this setup deserves capital. Framework 04 decided how much. Commit is the moment that capital actually moves.

Three things happen together and none of them happen afterwards: the trigger fires, the stop goes in, and the risk becomes real. A stop placed after entry is not a stop — it is a decision deferred to the worst possible moment, when the position is already moving against me and my judgement is least reliable.

Different setups need different room. A tight base and a wide-swinging flag do not deserve the same distance, and forcing one number onto both either strangles the trade or overpays for it. What stays constant is the discipline: every setup gets enough room to work and no more, the distance is decided before entry, and it is never widened afterwards.

The risk is defined before the trade begins, not during it.

Manage

Stop movement, adding to a position, and taking partial profits look like three separate techniques. They are one question asked three ways: has the trade earned more freedom, or more capital, or neither?

The answer never comes from me. It comes from what the position has already done, and from the conditions it is trading in.

Exhibit 02 · Two Paths
Conditions Constructive
Compound
  • Give the trend room
  • Trail the stop
  • Add on proven strength
  • Stay involved

The trade is allowed to develop.

Conditions Unstable
Protect
  • Take partial profit
  • Raise the stop
  • Reduce exposure
  • Protect capital

The trade is allowed less rope.

Same trade. Different environment. Different response.

Exhibit 03 · What Earns What
AdjustmentEarned When
Stop moves up

The trade has advanced far enough that the original risk no longer needs carrying

Position increases

The market has already proven the thesis correct — never before

Partial taken

Conditions have turned, or the remaining reward no longer justifies the remaining risk

On stops: Stops move in one direction only. A stop that widens is not a stop that was adjusted — it is a stop that was abandoned, usually at the moment it was about to do its job.

On adding: Adding to a winner is the only kind of adding. Adding to a loser has a different name, and it is not compounding — it is the sizing decision from Framework 04 being overruled after the fact by someone with worse information than the person who made it.

On partials: A partial is a risk decision, not a profit decision. It is also what makes holding possible: taking something off converts an uncomfortable position into one I can actually keep. Partial first, stop second — then if the stop is hit the trade concludes, and if the trend continues I am still in it.

Exit

Every trade rests on a reason. The exit question is simply whether that reason still holds.

A thesis can end several ways. The stop is hit and the setup is invalidated. The target is reached and the move is complete. The structure that justified the trade breaks down. Or enough time passes without progress that the capital is better used elsewhere. All four are the same event: the reason for holding has expired.

I exit when the thesis ends, not when the P&L is uncomfortable.

The market earns every adjustment.

A trade's default state is unchanged. Compounding must be earned by the market proving me right. Protecting must be earned by conditions turning, or by the remaining reward no longer justifying the remaining risk.

Nothing changes because I feel like changing it.

What This Framework Is Not

It Is Not Prediction. The framework responds to what the trade and the environment have already done, never to what either might do next.

It Is Not Hope. A position held past its thesis is not a trade being managed. It is a trade being avoided.

It Is Not P&L Management. The number on the screen is an outcome, not evidence. It changes every second and it knows nothing about whether the setup is still working.

Exhibit 04 · The Process Repeats
01Market Environment
02Opportunity Universe
03Setup Grading
04Sizing
05Trade Management
Framework 05 answered

“Now what?”

There is no Framework 06.

The trade closes. The market changes. The process begins again.

Version 0.1 — This framework will be refined as the process evolves.

Frameworks are revised as the market teaches us something. Subscribers get the revision and the reason.

Market observations and one monthly letter.How the market is behaving, what it means for process, and where the reading breaks down. No tips. No noise.

We respect your attention. Unsubscribe anytime.